Friday, February 28, 2014

Boys Basketball District Preview

Hart's James Freeman has the Pirates soaring
into district play with two straight wins.
(Photo by Andrew Skinner)
And here we are. This is a little later than I wanted this to get put up, but we are off and rolling with the district tournament starting on Monday.

The girls' district preview lost relevance quickly. Out of the eight teams I cover, seven lost their first game, with only Shelby still alive.

Again, in alphabetical order, team records in parentheses:

Hart (4-16)
Season recap: In what can only be described as a happy accident, Hart will enter the state tournament as the second-hottest team among our area schools, because the Pirates have won two games in a row. Hart defeated Mason Co. Eastern and Hesperia this week. Never mind the fact that the Pirates have lost 43 conference games in a row: They're red-hot! In truth, Hart isn't that bad a team — they're just very small and are lacking in top-end talent. Brandon Amstutz is the Pirates' most explosive scorer, while James Freeman is the most reliable. Travis Hall has stepped up of late as well.

District draw: Hart drew a bye. That's the good news. The bad news is they'll be facing #5-ranked Shelby in their district semifinal game.

Prediction: Shelby wallops Hart in the semis.

Hesperia (4-14)
Season recap: Hesperia's had an interesting year. For much too long, they'd played only three games, and due to the 18-game CSAA slate they faced, it wasn't until yesterday that they played a non-conference game (Hart). Still, the Panthers have been playing some great basketball. Last week, they took Reed City, the CSAA's best team, into overtime before losing, and also played tough with Big Rapids. However, it hasn't clicked into consistent success for the Panthers yet. The future looks pretty bright, though, as Traxton Gordon and Nathan McKeown, two of the team's best four players, are only sophomores.

District draw: Hesperia faces #5 Shelby in pre-district play. Panthers' coach Randy Gordon joked to me this week that he should petition for a move into a different team's district, as this is the second time in his three years that he's drawn Shelby in round one.

Prediction: Pain. (Ok, I had to say that.) Hesperia loses to Shelby.

Montague (9-10)
Season recap: Montague started the year with just two players who'd ever played a varsity minute — Luke VanBoxel and Chayce Lohman, both seniors. Although VanBoxel is one of the state's top scorers, most recently dropping 35 points on Whitehall Thursday night, it's still markedly impressive given that paucity of experience that the Wildcats managed to go .500 in a tough West Michigan Conference. Thursday showed what the team is capable of, as the 'Cats topped Whitehall, who was only playing for a share of the league title. Sophomore Jacob Buchberger has emerged as a legitimate second scoring threat, not to mention as the 1950s edition of the All-American boy (QB of the football team, point guard of the hoops team and second baseman on the baseball team). Ben Rupert, unfortunately, hurt his shoulder the weekend after his best career game and is out for the season.

District draw: Montague got a relatively cushy draw, facing Holton in round one and then White Cloud in the semifinals. Neither team is good, so the 'Cats should be in line for a battle with Shelby in the finals, gunning for revenge for the Tigers' upset of them in last year's semifinals.

Prediction: Montague and Shelby should play a pretty good game, but the Tigers have too much firepower.

Pentwater (13-7)
Season recap: For a team replacing a 1,000-1,000 guy in Erik Wallstrom, Pentwater's done pretty well this year. The Falcons have 10 conference wins behind the Wagner brothers, Alex and Sam, as well as Chance Helms, each of whom average at least 11 points per game. They have a strong team that won't be an easy out for anybody. Their biggest flaw is probably size, an understandable issue for a team that had Wallstrom gobbling up every basketball in sight a year ago. However, they can shoot the lights out at times, particularly Alex Wagner.

District draw: Pentwater is on the opposite side of Baldwin in this bracket, which is probably the most important thing. They face MCE first, then Brethren with a win.

Prediction: Falcons beat MCE, but Brethren's hosting the district, and home-court advantage will carry them past Pentwater.

Reeths-Puffer (3-15)
Season recap: This is exhibit A of why Montague's season has been so impressive. R-P entered the year with ONE player who'd ever played a relevant varsity minute, DeAndre Oaks-Owens. And it has shown. The Rockets have been out of most of their games by halftime. However, they've picked it up recently, even beating Zeeland East to avoid a winless O-K Black season Saturday.

District draw: The problem is, the Rockets are facing unbeaten, top-ranked Muskegon in their first district game.

Prediction: RP bounced by Muskegon.

Shelby (18-2)
Season recap: You really have to hand it to Shelby. Last year, they replaced their entire starting lineup from a state-semifinal team and still came within a buzzer-beating tip-in basket of winning a regional title and playing in the quarterfinals. This year, they didn't have to replace as much, but still quite a bit, and the Tigers rolled to a WMC title and until Thursday hadn't lost a game with a full roster (Jason Beckman's absence contributed to Shelby's loss to Whitehall). They enter postseason play ranked fifth and, with no ranked teams in front of them for a while in the bracket, poised to make a deep run. They have great shooters in Beckman, Devin Mussell, Caleb Anderson and Spencer Landis and they have inside power in Andrew Beckman (Jason's cousin) and Jeff Beckman (Andrew's brother). Coach Rick Zoulek loves running out a deep bench, and it's paid off this year.

District draw: The Tigers have a dream draw. There isn't so much as another team with a .500 record in their district (Montague is closest), and there's no other ranked team in their way in the regionals (Pewamo-Westphalia, who would be a regional-final opponent, is closest, having gotten a pair of votes in the most recent AP poll). There's not even a ranked team awaiting them in the quarterfinals, although a few teams receiving votes are there.

Prediction: Shelby just lost to Mason Co. Central, which is probably the best thing that could've happened to them. That final bit of edge will get Shelby to the semifinals. There, we'll call a Tigers' loss, probably to third-ranked Boyne City, who would meet them in the semis. But I wouldn't be at all shocked if the Tigers manage to squeeze their way to the title game.

Walkerville (0-18)
Season recap: We're at 103 losses and counting for Walkerville in a row. A recent Deadspin.com post linked to an article claiming that 88 is the national record for a high-school basketball losing streak. If that's true, then the record resides in West Michigan. Sam Sweet, despite this, will surpass 1,000 career points, most likely Saturday against Bear Lake.

District draw: Walkerville won't even have the luxury of a potential upset victim in the district tournament, because after a bye, they'll get Baldwin, who's 14-0 in West Michigan D League play.

Prediction: Loss #105 against Baldwin.

Whitehall (14-4)
Season recap: Whitehall lost one of the program's best ever in Isaac Love, but not a lot else from last year, so the Vikings have been able to ride captains Matt Rohen and Matt Russell to a really nice season and a second-place finish in the WMC. Besides Rohen and Russell, Dylan Medendorp and Noah Trombley have been key cogs. Keenan Aylor is done for the year with an ankle injury, but the Vikings boast a nice array of size on the interior.

District draw: Whitehall draws Spring Lake in exhibit A for the pro-'tournament seeding' argument. The two teams were two of the hottest in the state before losing their finales Thursday, with only one loss each in the year 2014 (Whitehall to Class C #5 Shelby and Spring Lake to Class B #1 Godwin Heights). Their pre-district game is probably a de facto championship for the district. The winner probably gets #10 Comstock Park in regional play.

Prediction: I'd like to predict Whitehall will win the district, but I'll take Spring Lake to repeat last year's district title game win over Whitehall.

Thursday, February 20, 2014

Girls Basketball District Preview

Montague's Hailey Cockerill will be one of many
area girls' basketball players hoping for district success
when the tournaments start next Monday.
(Photo by Andy Roberts)
We're already closing in on the end of basketball season in West Michigan (which is depressing, because there's still 2 feet of snow on the ground and ostensibly we're supposed to play girls soccer games and baseball/softball doubleheaders in about a month). The eight area schools we cover will be playing district games in girls basketball next week and boys basketball the week after that, so this seems like a good time to catch up with both. I'll run a boys preview next week.

In alphabetical order, records in parentheses, here we go. Note that the girls' teams all have one or two regular-season games left.

Hart (4-12)
Season recap: A combination of space issues and snow-outs have kept me from actually seeing Hart play in person since their season opener against Mason County Eastern, but the results I've seen from them seem to indicate that they're improving. The squad I saw in December could hardly get out of its own way, and the team lost a string of games to start the season. The Pirates are basically a .500 team since that opening skid, though, and Baylee Draper and Madison Hegedus have emerged as viable forces in the post — in Draper's case, particularly on defense.

District draw: The Pirates caught a break in the district draw when Shelby and Holton, the two best teams in the district, were sorted in the other half of the bracket. Hart faces White Cloud, possibly the weakest team in the bracket, in a pre-district game, then would face Montague on Wednesday, a team Hart was behind on the totem pole at the start of the season but since has arguably surpassed.

Prediction: Hart reaches the district finals before losing. With a lot of young players on this year's team, Hart has a chance to be a decent team next year.

Hesperia (1-14)
Season recap: It's been a rough go for Hesperia. Coach Tom Welsh abruptly resigned four games into the season, leaving athletic director Mike Fosburg to take over on an interim basis. The Panthers didn't have a lot of talent to begin with – the team basically revolves around senior Lauren Zeerip, with sophomore Mariah Stitt a consistent second scorer and occasionally capable of brilliance — and not having a full coach hasn't helped, as Hesperia hasn't won since Welsh took off. However, the Panthers did play probably their best game of the year in a 12-point loss to CSAA second-place team Chippewa Hills in a game the Panthers were in all the way. Also: I should note that I haven't seen this team play in person yet. I've tried to 3 times, but 2 of those games were canceled without my knowing about it until I showed up for the game, and the other took place despite snowy conditions Monday night that were so awful I made the executive decision not to risk my life for it. I'll finally see them when they take on Shelby in a pre-district game Monday.

District draw: Hesperia's snakebitten season continued with the draw, where they face Shelby, probably the best team in a spectacularly weak district. Even if they pulled off a shocking upset, they'd face the district's second-best team, Holton, in the second round, a team the Panthers have lost to twice already.

Prediction: Hesperia pushes Shelby early into the second half, but loses their opener.

Montague (5-14)
Season recap: I had vaguely high expectations for Montague coming into this season, as the Wildcats returned most of their important players from a year ago and seem to have a decent base of talent. But it hasn't come together for them at all, and of all the teams I cover, this one seems to have improved the least since the season began. There are bright spots — Elyse Taylor, Meghan Olson and Katie Webster all bring different talents to the post, and Hailey Cockerill and the Shugars sisters (Morgan and Kenadee) are a gifted backcourt — but they just can't seem to get it to click.

District draw: Montague probably got the cushiest draw of any team in the area, not only dodging Shelby and Holton in the Hesperia district until a hypothetical final, but getting a bye. They face the winner of Hart and White Cloud on Wednesday and would get Shelby or Holton in the finals.

Prediction: Montague loses a close game to Hart in the semifinals.

Pentwater (10-8)
Season recap: Pentwater has come a long way from the group that didn't even have enough experienced players to field a varsity team in 2011-12. The Falcons are still not major contenders, but they're a solid, .500-level team in the West Michigan D League, which is a pretty terrific accomplishment for coach Jeff McDonough on a team still almost completely devoid of experience. Arguably the Falcons' best player, Taylor Wilkinson (23 points and 16 rebounds in Tuesday's win at Brethren), is in eighth grade and only eligible to play varsity because of an exemption in the rules regarding low-enrollment schools. Their second-best player, Linnea McDonough, is a freshman, and their third-best player, Emily Gebhart, is a sophomore. This team has an extremely bright future, and the present isn't bad either.

District draw: Pentwater, unlike the above, is a Class D school, so they're in a different district, the one at Walkerville. The Falcons unfortunately draw one of the best teams in the WMD, Manistee Catholic, in a pre-district game. If they win, they face Mason County Eastern.

Prediction: Pentwater loses to Manistee Catholic. Too bad, as it would've been nice to see what the young team could do deeper in the tournament.

Reeths-Puffer (12-6)
Season recap: It wasn't that long ago that R-P was making me look ahead to the regionals and perhaps farther. R-P started 9-2, and despite their lack of size, they more than made up for it with terrific speed and athleticism. However, the Rockets seem to be hitting a bit of a wall of late, and I'm not sure what to make of it. High-scoring Kalisa Williams is the big star, although Camaryia Williams, listed at 5'5", might be more important as the primary ball-handler and rebounder. The Rockets are only 5-4 in O-K Black Conference play. There's no questioning the team's talent, but I wonder if they'll have the horses to play their to-the-wall style in the postseason.

District draw: The Rockets are in Class A, and will host the district tournament. They face Muskegon in the pre-districts, who they just lost to on Tuesday. If they win that, they would essentially get a bye to the finals as they play terrible Kenowa Hills in the semis.

Prediction: Hard to see the Rockets getting past Muskegon. The Big Reds' best basketball of the season is being played now while R-P's was seemingly played in January.

Shelby (11-8)
Season recap: It's hard to tell whether Tigers' supporters should be pleasantly surprised or disappointed by this season. On the one hand, Shelby lost more talent than maybe any other year in school history after the graduation of Class C all-state first-teamer Sydney Czurak and underrated all-conference point guard Abby Rodriguez from the 2013 state quarterfinalists. On the other hand, there's still lots of talent on this team (most notably senior Tristen Moore on the inside), and it feels like Shelby maybe has been playing with a bit of a hangover from that playoff run. On the whole, though, it's been a decent season, and Shelby hasn't taken any really bad losses — they just aren't beating everyone anymore. They did manage to sweep Whitehall and look to be the third-best team in the WMC.

District draw: I don't know for sure that Shelby faces the weakest district slate of any team in Michigan, but I can't imagine it gets any easier than one-win Hesperia, then a Holton team that's near .500 but also lost to awful White Cloud, then either said White Cloud team, Hart or Montague, none of which is even close to .500.

Prediction: Barring an upset, Shelby will capture the district title, but they'll probably run into consistent Class C power Morley-Stanwood in the regional semifinal, and that's probably not going to go well for them.

Walkerville (3-16)
Season recap: Like Montague, this is a team that feels like they should be better than they are. The Wildcats returned almost everyone from last year's squad that finished with a similar record, and they've played some good basketball at points this year, but it just hasn't clicked. Their main problem is offense — the Wildcats play good defense most of the time, but can't find anyone who can consistently deliver high scoring. Melanie Drum and Mandy Achterhof come the closest, but if Walkerville is going to do any winning in districts, it'll have to be in a slugfest.

District draw: Walkerville got a fairly fortunate draw in their home district, facing Brethren in the pre-district round, a winnable game. If the Wildcats can win that one, they'll face an awful Baldwin squad in the semifinals before running into Manistee Catholic or Mason County Eastern in the finals.

Prediction: Walkerville makes it to the finals. Why not?

Whitehall (9-9)
Season recap: The record doesn't show it, but Whitehall is capable of being a really good team. They have one of the state's most unstoppable players in junior forward Emily MacArthur, who's good for 20 and 10 (at least) almost every night regardless of how many players the other team sends at her. Senior point guard Jenna Pesch is at times a potent scorer, and the Vikings have a decent array of role players that occasionally deliver big-time performances. Whitehall has dropped a narrow game to WMC champion Oakridge this year, as well as nearly rallying from a 20-point deficit against second-place Mason County Central after a terrible third quarter. They also had their chances to beat Shelby the first time the teams met. Consistency has been the bugaboo for Whitehall, as they've not been able to get every facet of their game going at any time.

(Apropos of nothing, I like — to varying degrees — all the coaches I deal with in this job, but no one speaks with more candor than Whitehall coach Rachel Kent. She's not afraid to say so if she feels like her team laid up a stinker, most recently referring to a "terrible performance" by the Vikings in a 30-point loss to Belding Wednesday night.

District draw: Whitehall has a layup of a game against Fruitport in the pre-district round of the Orchard View tournament, but the Vikings have the tall task of Oakridge awaiting in the semifinals. It's not a game Whitehall can't win, but they'd have to play their best game of the year to do it.

Prediction: Whitehall does play a really good game against Oakridge, but the Eagles are just too good.